The Macroeconomic Effects of Commodity Price Uncertainty

Effects of U.S. Macroeconomic Shocks on International Commodity Prices: Emphasis on Price and Exchange Rate Pass-through Effects

Using a structural VAR with block exogeneity, diagonality and identifying restrictions, this paper analyzes: first, the macroeconomic linkages among the oil price, U.S. output, interest rate, money supply, general price level and exchange rate and second, the relationships of the macroeconomic variables with the price indices of ten international nonfuel commodity groups. By assuming the block ...

Commodity price shocks and imperfectly credible macroeconomic policies

In this paper, we analyze how lack of credibility and transparency of monetary and fiscal policies undermines the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies to isolate the economy from commodity price fluctuations. We develop a general equilibrium model for a commodity exporting economy where macro policies are conducted through rules. We show that the responses of output, aggregate demand, and in...

Commodity price stabilisation: macroeconomic impacts and policy options

A macroeconometric simulation study is undertaken to evaluate the impact of commodity price stabilisation (CPS) schemes for the export tree crop industry in Papua New Guinea. The findings suggest that there is a negligible level of favourable macroeconomic impacts of CPS. Contrary to the expectation, CPS adversely affects the stability of monetary and external sectors (BOP). CPS policy has fail...

Excessive commodity price volatility: Macroeconomic effects on growth and policy options

The macroeconomic effects of international uncertainty shocks

We propose a large-scale Bayesian VAR model with factor stochastic volatility to investigate the macroeconomic consequences of international uncertainty shocks on the G7 countries. The factor structure enables us to identify an international uncertainty shock by assuming that it is the factor most correlated with forecast errors related to equity markets and permits fast sampling of the model. ...